
The Relative Value of Cattle: Why the Spread Matters More Than the Price
Lessons From The Ranchonomics Podcast Episode 39 With Wally Olson
When feeders are over $2.80 on the board and people are paying $5,000 for bred cows in Canada, the natural reaction is to freeze. The numbers are scary, so everybody wants to sell and nobody wants to buy. But that instinct misses the point. The relative value of cattle, not the absolute price tag, is what tells you what to do.
Here’s the whole idea in one line from Wally Olson: prices are never too high or too low, it’s just the relationships involved. This is for stocker operators and cow-calf producers trying to keep their heads straight in a market that keeps setting records. Wally runs a sell-buy marketing operation built entirely on these relationships, and he’ll tell you a $2,000 steer can be a great buy, if you understand what you’re comparing him to. Once you’re reading the relative value of cattle instead of the sticker price, a $2,000 steer stops looking scary.
Key Takeaways
- The relative value of cattle is about the spread between classes and weights, not the dollar figure that makes you flinch.
- A $2,100, 700-pound steer at $3 isn’t overvalued if you can buy and hedge him for the same price and the value of gain pencils out.
- You only sell when you’ve found something undervalued to buy back, otherwise you’re effectively out of business.
- Don’t try to time the market. Greed and fear make the timing almost always wrong. Just do the math on today’s relationships.
- Checking the relative value of cattle before every trade keeps emotion out of a decision that should be math.
Why the Relative Value of Cattle Beats the Absolute Price
Wally is going to grass with steers he gave $2,000 for. A few years ago he’d have told you that was impossible, and his own instinct nearly made him miss it. But the relative value of cattle made it work. He’s buying around $2.80 and can hedge at $2.80, and as Gordon Hazard taught, if you know your buy price and your sell price, the value of gain is easy to figure. With a little winter feed and a $150 grass bill, even a $3, 700-pound steer isn’t overvalued.
The discipline is laying the risk off, with LRP, hedging, or puts and calls, then buying another load and doing it again. Notice the absolute price never enters the decision. It only matters what you compare it to. We have to train ourselves to work across a wide range of prices by comparing, not by reacting to the headline number.
Reading the Relative Value of Cattle Across Classes
The same logic runs through the cow-calf side. Run the cowbell curve, comparing a bred cow to a heifer calf, and right now the spread still favors action. You can pick up cash by selling the overvalued animal and keeping or buying back the undervalued one.
But the relative value of cattle cuts both ways, and you have to respect the downside. From 2014 to 2016, young black cows that sold for $3,500 were worth $680 as culls a few years later. That’s depreciation, the animal aging out, stacked on top of deflation, the market falling. Both worked against the owner at once. So don’t fear the downturn, prepare to use it. When the market turns, an old cow you let run out of time is the worst place to be.
Wally’s three tools all measure these relationships:
- The cattle square, which gives you the relationships and the value of gain between weight classes.
- The cowbell curve, which shows the relationships between a heifer calf, a bred cow, and a cull cow.
- The intrinsic value of a cow, which tells you quickly whether she’s overvalued or undervalued.
Each tool is just a different lens on the same idea, the relative value of cattle sitting in front of you right now. Master those three and you have what you need to make a good decision in any price environment.
Don’t Time the Market, Just Do the Math
The most important thing to remember is that we don’t know what tomorrow brings. The market could crash next week or double from here before it ever drops. People said the herd would rebuild in two or three years back in 2015, and 2016 came anyway. The forecasters get it wrong, no insult intended, it’s a tough job, but as our friend Don Day says, bat .400 in the majors and you’re in the Hall of Fame, and most of us aren’t Hall of Famers.
So sell only when you find something undervalued to buy back, and let the price relationships tell you your next move. There are two practical cautions in a high market. First, on fixed capital you can run only about half as many head, so make it up with turnover, using the same money two or three times a year instead of once. Second, death loss costs more, a $2,100 animal dying hurts far worse than a $680 one, so allow for it. As long as there’s more than one animal in the pen, one of them is overvalued relative to the other, and you can keep trading. Keep your eye on the relative value of cattle instead of the calendar, and the next good trade will find you.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relative value of cattle? The relative value of cattle is what an animal is worth compared to other classes or weights, not its absolute dollar price. A bred cow, a heifer calf, and a cull cow each carry a value, and the spreads between them, not the headline price, are what tell you which one to sell and which to keep or buy.
Are cattle ever priced too high to buy? Not on price alone. Wally bought $2,000 steers that pencil as a good investment because he can hedge them and the value of gain works. The relative value of cattle, the spread between buy and sell prices, decides it, not whether the number looks big.
Should I sell my cows because the market is high? Only if you’ve found something undervalued to buy back. Selling and staying out puts you effectively out of business, so you miss the next move up or down. A high cow-calf market with controlled costs is a high-margin factory worth keeping running. Track the relative value of cattle instead of the headline number and you’ll know when it’s time to sell.
How do I handle high prices in the stocker business? On fixed capital you can run roughly half as many head, so focus on turnover, using your capital two or three times a year. Also budget for higher death loss, since a $2,100 animal dying costs far more than a $680 one used to.
The Bottom Line
The relative value of cattle is the lens that keeps you sane when prices blow your mind. Ignore the headline number, watch the spreads between classes and weights, sell the overvalued, buy back the undervalued, and just do the math on today. My thanks to Wally Olson, whose sell-buy marketing work has straightened out my thinking for years. If you want to keep sharpening this, Wally hosts a weekly Market Pulse call over at ranching.fyi.
More From the Sell/Buy Marketing Series
- The Intrinsic Value of a Cow: Keep or Sell?: calculating a cow’s true breakeven value
- Sell Buy Marketing for Cattle: A Plain-English Guide: the full framework behind these relationships
- How to Sell Cattle for the Most Money: A Field Guide: pricing off your local market instead of the headline number
This article draws on Episode 39 of the Ranchonomics Podcast with Wally Olson.
























